I issued this prompt to Genspark Super Agent.
How fare away are we from
1. General artificial intelligence
2. Super artificial intelligence
It does a thorough job and uses minutes to analyse starting like this
Final answer:I'll address your questions about the timeline for advanced AI development. Let me search for the latest insights on general artificial intelligence and superintelligence.
Using Tool
|
Parallel Search
artificial general intelligence timeline predictions
superintelligence AI timeline predictions
AGI vs superintelligence development timeline
expert opinions on AGI timeline
when will we reach superintelligence
View
Let me gather more specific information about the definitions and current progress of AGI and superintelligence.
Based on all the research, I can now provide you with a comprehensive answer about our current distance from General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) and Superintelligence.
# How Far Are We From Advanced AI Systems?
## 1. General Artificial Intelligence (AGI)
AGI refers to AI systems that can perform any intellectual task that humans can do, demonstrating human-level intelligence across multiple domains rather than excelling at just one specific task.
### Current Expert Predictions:
Scientists and AI researchers have varying timelines for AGI development:
- **Conservative estimates**: Most academic surveys show a 50% probability of AGI between 2040-2060
- **Recent estimates**: The 2023 AI Impacts survey of 2,778 AI researchers suggests AGI by 2040, showing timelines shortening
- **Industry leaders**: Many technology executives and AI companies predict much sooner arrival:
- Elon Musk expects AGI by 2026
- Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) predicts 2026
- Masayoshi Son forecasts 2027-2028
- Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) suggests 2029
- Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder) states: "We could be living with artificial general intelligence in five years. I think the probability is even higher in 10 years" [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/g ... t-ai/3974/)
- Ray Kurzweil updated his prediction from 2045 to 2032
### Key Factors Supporting Faster AGI Development:
1. **Exponential compute growth**: Training compute for AI models has grown 4-5x per year
2. **Capability breakthroughs**: Recent models like Claude 3.7 and OpenAI's o1 can complete tasks that would take humans nearly an hour
3. **Investment acceleration**: Unprecedented funding in AGI research, with Microsoft investing $10+ billion in OpenAI alone
### Key Factors Against Near-Term AGI:
1. **Historical overoptimism**: Previous AI predictions have consistently been too aggressive
2. **Scientific consensus**: 76% of surveyed AI researchers believe scaling current approaches alone won't achieve AGI
3. **Resource limitations**: Power consumption, chip manufacturing capacity, and quality data scarcity
4. **Architecture limitations**: Experts like Yann LeCun argue that new approaches, not just scaling, are needed
## 2. Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)
ASI represents an intelligence that would significantly surpass human capabilities in virtually every domain, potentially by orders of magnitude.
### Key Differences from AGI:
- AGI aims to match human intelligence across domains
- ASI would far exceed human intelligence in all areas
- ASI would likely possess capabilities for self-improvement, potentially leading to an "intelligence explosion"
### Predicted Timeline:
Experts generally believe ASI would follow AGI within a relatively short timeframe:
- According to the 2012/2013 Muller & Bostrom survey, once AGI is achieved, most experts believe superintelligence would follow within:
- As little as 2 years (10% probability)
- About 30 years (75% probability)
- Some AI researchers, including experts at DeepMind, suggest the transition could potentially happen very quickly, possibly even within minutes to months of AGI achievement
### Challenges for ASI Development:
1. **Control problem**: Ensuring superintelligent systems align with human values
2. **Safety measures**: Creating effective containment and oversight mechanisms
3. **Power requirements**: ASI would likely need unprecedented computational resources
4. **Regulation**: Developing international frameworks for ASI governance
## Conclusion: The Gap Between Current AI and AGI/ASI
Current AI systems remain in the category of Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) - specialized for specific tasks rather than general problem-solving. While systems like GPT-4 and Claude can simulate aspects of general intelligence, they lack true understanding, planning, abstract reasoning, and autonomous agency that would characterize AGI.
The timeline for reaching AGI appears to be compressing as technology advances faster than previously predicted, with many experts now seeing it as a possibility within the next decade rather than mid-century. However, significant technical hurdles remain.
As for superintelligence, its arrival depends entirely on first achieving AGI, and predictions range from immediately following AGI to decades later. The nature of the transition from AGI to ASI remains one of the most uncertain aspects of the AI development timeline.
What is clear from the research is that these timelines continue to shift as AI capabilities advance, and the gap between our current systems and true artificial general intelligence - while still substantial - may be closing faster than many anticipated even a few years ago.
Exercise.
Update what I prompted various ChatBots:
How far away are we from General artificial intelligence and Super artificial intelligence